Commodity Trader's Almanac For Active Traders of Futures, Forex, Stocks & ETFs (Almanac Investor Series). Read more. Stock Trader's Almanac (Almanac Investor Series) Commodity Trader's Almanac For Active Traders of Futures, Forex, Stocks & ETFs (Almanac. This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, and is not an offer to download, nor sell or a solicitation of an offer to download or.
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The contract specifications table, which also contains a listing of high-correlating stocks and exchange-traded funds ETFs for each commodity on pages , has been expanded to six pages to make room for the additional stocks and ETFs added this year. This should help futures traders and stock traders capitalize on these seasonal tendencies by using various securities based on the many different patterns and strategies presented herewith.
On page , we have refined the selection of ETFs for potential trades in the markets covered in these pages. The Almanac provides the statistical information on the seasonal tendencies of various markets and identifies specific trading dates and holding days for each trade. On pages we reveal some of John's favorite chart pattern recognition techniques that he uses to help determine trade entries, risk, and stop placement. We have also employed some charts and indicators from www.
Case studies on pages feature TradeStation charts embedded with John's proprietary indicators. Finally, at the behest of many readers, we have added First Notice, Last Trade, and standard Option Expiration Days for all 19 markets included in this tome. Please refer to the contract specification table on pages for an explanation of all the trading symbols and contract month codes.
It is important to remember to use the Commodity Trader's Almanac as a reference guide and to compare current events against history. We have included the data necessary to distinguish which years had predominantly bigger price moves and where current prices and trends arc against past historic data.
We wish you a healthy and prosperous ! John L. Person and Jeffrey A. We feel these patterns are so effective and vital in helping traders time their entries and exits on positions that we decided to include them in this year's Almanac. You want to be sensitive to these chart pat- terns due to the higher frequency of occurrences and reliability of their meanings.
It is also known as a double bottom with a higher right side breakout; and, of course, it is similarly dubbed a swing bot- tom formation, as shown in Figure 1. The basic premise is that after a period of descending prices, the market bounces higher and then "re-tests" the primary low or point 1. Then the market rallies establishing a swing high, labeled point 2. Typically after a period of time, the market sells off making a secondary higher low, labeled point 3.
Once the market penetrates the high of point 2, this action gives a trader confirmation of a trigger to go long. A general rule I like to teach students is you place your sell stop initially below point 3. In Figure 2, we have a 15 minute chart on the Japanese yen futures contract displaying a typical bottom pattern.
Notice the swing high, labeled Point 2, acts as a resist- ance. However, once the high has been penetrated just before the AM time frame, the market trades higher. The old high established by Point 2 now acts as support. Entering to go long just above the high of point 2 and setting your stop below the low of point 3 gave an excellent trade with a defined risk level.
Generally after a prolonged period of rising prices, the market peaks out forming the swing high, labeled point 1. Then we see a decline posting a swing low, labeled point 2. The market tends to retest the highs but makes a secondary lower high, labeled point 3. Once the market breaks below the low of point 2 that is the trigger to liquidate longs or sell short.
For active traders looking to sell short on this set-up, stops are placed above the high of point 3. Now look at Figure 4. See the prolonged run-up in value that started in the European session that lasted through the U. CL H 24 LT: NG H Experience is helpful.
LC G Develop interest in life as you see it. Forget yourself. Freedom from laziness and lethargy.
SB H Self-discipline is a form of freedom. There are no limitations in what you can do except the limitations in your own mind.
You can do things you never thought you could do. W hat we know and can do holds the key to economic progress. JY H The future now belongs to societies that organize themselves for learning.
THURSDAY 10 Based on my own personal experience— both as an investor in recent years and an expert witness in years past— rarely do more than three or four variables really count. Everything else is noise. JY H From very early on. I understood that you can touch a piece of paper once… if you touch it twice. A fter that. End Short Gold J Feb. SP H OE: It must grow the business. CL J Marketing is our No. CL J The incestuous relationship between government and big business thrives in the dark.
CL J Nothing is more uncertain than the favor of the crowd. See pages — for contract symbols. GC J A ll there is to investing is picking good stocks at good times and staying with them as long as they remain good companies. SI H The job of central banks: To take away the punch bowl just as the party is getting going.
NG J Chance favors the informed mind. GC J A realist believes that what is done or left undone in the short run determines the long run. I may not live long enough to see the crisis. End Short Yen M Mar. CC K If banking institutions are protected by the taxpayer and they are given free rein to speculate. I need perspective. I need a game plan. The market is smarter than I am so I bend.
I try to get my ego out of the way.
Then come back and hit it again. Then hit it a third time— a tremendous whack. Use a pile driver. Hit the point once. downloading value and holding long term while collecting dividends has been proven over and over again.
End Short Cocoa N Mar. LH J OE: CC K OE: SB K If I have seen further. I know of no way of judging the future but by the past. KC K There are two kinds of people who lose money: I would like to say to Milton [Friedman]: But thanks to you.
W K Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve. CL K OE: Small stocks tend to have higher average returns than big stocks. SI K He who hesitates is poor. Start Long Year Bond U — GC J The game is lost only when we stop trying.
LC J Keep me away from the wisdom which does not cry. Start Short Cattle V — End Long Corn N Oct. Start Short Silver N — LH K OE: LH K Economics is a very difficult subject. CL M The worst mistake investors make is taking their profits too soon. Being poor is a frame of mind. Being broke is only a temporary situation.
A nd I think when you have that kind of steely determination… people get out of the way. I had it in my head that if I had to. CL M OE: US M I had an unshakable faith. GC M One only gets to the top rung on the ladder by steadily climbing up one at a time. SI K The possession of gold has ruined fewer men than the lack of it.
NG M If you torture the data long enough. End Long Soybeans N Feb. GC M A ll you need is to look over the earnings forecasts publicly made a year ago to see how much care you need to give those being made now for next year.
JY M Being uneducated is sometimes beneficial. LC M If you can download more of your best idea. The more positions you have. A nd those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future. Start Long Wheat Z — KC N If I had eight hours to chop down a tree. JY M We can guarantee cash benefits as far out and at whatever size you like.
LH M OE: SB N To an imagination of any scope the most far-reaching form of power is not money. SP M OE: CL N Knowledge born from actual experience is the answer to why one profits. CL N It is totally unproductive to think the world has been unfair to you. Every tough stretch is an opportunity. KC N W henever you see a successful business.
Build them a quality product and treat them with respect. CL N There is no great mystery to satisfying your customers. If you create a character. SI N If you create an act. If you create a habit. GC M Those companies that the market expects will have the best futures. Start Long British Pound U — NG N If you live each day as if it was your last. LC M In the realm of ideas. If you bet cotton will go up three points. See the difference?
SB N If you bet on a horse. If you bet you can make three spades. They are the ones who have been contributing to the activity. End Long Cocoa U Jun. CC N A merica. LH N OE: LH N The facts are unimportant! Contrary Opinion. KC N If downloading equities seem the most hazardous and foolish thing you could possibly do. Everything impossible today may at some time in the future be possible. CL Q A statistician is someone who can draw a straight line from an unwarranted assumption to a foregone conclusion.
CL Q OE: S Q If the market does not rally. GC Q Technology has no respect for tradition. Start Long Natural Gas X — Start Short Cocoa Z — SI N A ll the features and achievements of modern civilization are. NG Q To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize.
End Short Soybeans U Jun. The typical individual investor has a great advantage over the large institutions. S Q The heights by great men reached and kept. Numerous traders cited listening to others as their worst blunder.
LC Q Six words that spell business success: LC Q If you are ready to give up everything else—to study the whole history and background of the market and all the principal companies… as carefully as a medical student studies anatomy… and. The power of sound has always been greater than the power of sense. A real scientist tends to be critical. W hat kind of grad students do you take?
I never take a straight-A student. It should not give greater encouragement for Goldman Sachs [et al] to do so. LH Q OE: Start Long Coffee Z — CL U We may face more inflation pressure than currently shows up in formal data. Start Long Cocoa Z — CC U Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
KC U W hen everybody thinks alike. CL U Stock prices tend to discount what has been unanimously reported by the mass media. Start Long Gold Z — HG U SI U Your organization will never get better unless you are willing to admit that there is something wrong with it. W U I have a simple philosophy.
A nd scratch where it itches. GC Q Explosive growth of shadow banking was about the invisible hand having a party. NG U The more feted by the media. LC Q We are all born originals. JY V The man who can master his time can master nearly anything. End Long Coffee Z Aug. Start Long Euro Z — For one person who dreams of making Start Short Crude Oil G — W U You know a country is falling apart when even the government will not accept its own currency.
CC U OE: SB V I will never knowingly download any company that has a real time quote of their stock price in the building lobby. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first. Let us never negotiate out of fear. But let us never fear to negotiate. JY U Civility is not a sign of weakness. A t a time of so much cynicism and so much doubt. A t a time of inequality. A ll fact collectors with no aim beyond their facts are one-story men.
Their best illuminations come from above through the skylight. Three-story men idealize. US U There are one-story intellects. Two-story men compare. CL V Fortune favors the brave. End Long Cocoa Z Aug. GC V The public may boo me. I clap. True value will win out in the end. SI U Benjamin Graham was correct in suggesting that while the stock market in the short run may be a voting mechanism. I come from a country where there were barriers upon barriers. NG V I have a love affair with America.
Democracy in A merica. GC V LT: SB V In democracies. End Long Euro Z Sep. It is human nature to blame others. A lways. SB V Everyone blames the foreigners when the economy goes south. Start Short Gold Z — It seems pretty basic to me. If you want to feel good about yourself. LC V Our firm conviction is that. We will bury you. LC V Financial markets will find and exploit hidden flaws.
They never have learned that insights become effectiveness only through hard systematic work.
LH V OE: LH V No other country can substitute for the U. The U. No other country can. Only the U. CL X With enough inside information and a million dollars. Start Short Yen H — CL X A generation from now. CL X The ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow. TUESDAY 25 Politics ought to be the part-time profession of every citizen who would protect the rights and privileges of free people and who would preserve what is good and fruitful in our national heritage.
HG X If investing is entertaining. Good investing is boring. Start Long Euro H — GC V W hile markets often make double bottoms. Bollinger on Bollinger Bands. Do it flamboyantly. Start immediately. No exceptions. Start Long Corn N — LC V But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values. Start Long Lean Hogs G — End Short Cocoa Z Jul.
End Long Wheat Z Jun. CC Z Banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies. End Short Gold Z Oct. End Long Soybeans F Oct. S X Companies which do well generally tend to report their quarterly earnings earlier than those which do poorly. CL Z The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. CC Z If you are not willing to study. Start Long Gold G — CL Z Of companies from to that relied primarily on cost cutting to improve the bottom line.
KC Z History is a collection of agreed upon lies. CL Z OE: Start Short Sugar H — HG Z Get to the Point! Blurt it out! W Z Good luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. Threat to Democracy: HG X Big Business breeds bureaucracy and bureaucrats exactly as big government does. NG Z The worst crime against working people is a company that fails to make a profit.
W Z Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong. Tell them what to do and they will surprise you with their ingenuity. End Long Gold G Nov.
JY Z W hen an old man dies. Start Long Wheat K — LH Z OE: Should I download? Start Long Copper K — CL F The men who can manage men manage the men who manage only things.
SP Z OE: If you want to plant a crop for eternities. If you want to raise a crop for centuries. If you want to raise a crop for decades. End Long Cocoa H Nov. The belief in a thing makes it happen. SI Z W henever a well-known bearish analyst is interviewed [Cover story] in the financial press it usually coincides with an important near-term market bottom.
Start Short British Pound M — It is deciding how you will go about achieving it and staying with that plan. NG F Setting a goal is not the main thing. LC Z There is only one corner of the universe you can be certain of improving. Seasonal Pattern.
The other way to take advantage of the January break is to wait for prices to decline and then look for a downloading opportunity against support page I want to point out that it is important to use technical tools to help you fine tune your entries. As we have pointed out. That is why in last year's edition we introduced the reader to both candlestick patterns and Pivot Point analysis.
If traders want to take advantage of the January break. As the chart below shows. Aggressive short term-traders can look to take short positions when given an opportunity based on a bearish set-up with confirmation.
Last year presented an opportunity for both style of traders. Generally speaking. There remain few indicators I trust more than my Person Pivot Indicator.
Timing the trades can be tricky. Another text book example of how to incorporate seasonal analysis with technical indicators. It has been up 10 and registered only one loss.
As a result of this crisis. On page 30 we stated: But as the chart below shows. In the grand scheme of things. But the decline did not just happen overnight. By early May. By mid-February.
Our first trade in the Almanac to start the New Year featured the short Euro trade on page As you can see. Here is an excerpt straight from last year's January Almanac on page Once again notice that the price rallied right up to the predicted monthly Pivot resistance where a sell signal was generated on my indicators.
It is often stated that crude oil bottoms in the first few weeks of the New Year. By understanding that we are entering the seasonally strong period.
Not only can traders take advan- tage of the seasonal break in crude oil. Murphy Oil is one company we found that correlates well to the underlying crude oil price moves. I have a proprietary indicator named Person Histogram that not only indicates a bullish convergence signal. But the research we have put into the Commodity Trader's Almanac clearly shows that the best time to enter long positions is in February. The Commodity Trader's Almanac also features exchange-traded funds and stocks that are highly-correlated to the underlying commodity throughout with a listing on pages After a major early month decline.
In last year's edition page This trade now boasts a track record of 23 gains in the last 27 years.