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Since Brazil has become an important target for foreign direct investment FDI , in accordance with its status as not only the largest economy in Latin America and the eighth in the world, but also as a market with an enormous economic potential. Car manufacturers were among the first to spot the opportunities offered by a more stable economy and invested heavily in Brazil. The Brazilian government expected the final amount to be of The growth rate for was negative In this article, we will, however, argue that the expansion of FDI in the automobile sector in Brazil is producing perverse effects in the form of territorial competition among Brazilian states, which may ultimately jeopardize any long-term economic benefit resulting from the increase in FDI.
Our main aim is to study recent trends in FDI in the automobile sector and to identify the negative effects generated by the increase in territorial competition linked to the expansion of investment, that is by the race among Brazilian governors to attract new car plants to their respective states.
In order to achieve this, we will first briefly review the theoretical implications of the process of globalization and institutional reaction in the form of territorial competition in developing countries, before analysing Brazil's economic evolution.
These sections are followed by the study of FDI in the automobile sector in Brazil. The analysis of the emergence of territorial competition among Brazilian states in order to attract car plants to their respective territories comes next.
In the final section, we identify the winners and losers of the process of territorial competition and try to detect the global impact this process may have on the future of economic activity in Brazil. Globalization, federalism and territorial competition in developing countries Although the effects of the process of economic globalization and the opening of markets for developing countries are by no means uncontroversial, the dominant view in the field of neoclassical and endogenous growth theories is that a greater integration of developing economies into the world economy entails more advantages than disadvantages.
From these perspectives, it is considered that any increase in flows of trade and information between the developed and the developing worlds is likely to give rise to competitive and restructuring effects which in the medium-term may have a significant impact on the overall productivity of labour in developing countries Grossman and Helpman, Hence, open economies -since trade is one of the few 3 factors that, according to Levine and Renelt , is consistently robust in determining the growth outcome of any country - are generally regarded to have a greater capacity to grow than closed economies.
Moreover, open economies are considered to be more likely to benefit from technological spillovers. Developing countries which increase their trade with technologically advanced countries are regarded as more capable of boosting their productivity by acquiring a level of know-how which would otherwise have been very costly to obtain using their own resources3 Coe and Helpman, ; Coe, Helpman and Hoffmaister, This dominant view has been verified empirically by Sachs and Warner and Sachs, Warner, and Hoffmeister These authors establish a relationship between the rate of growth of countries and their degree of openness.
Their analysis of national growth rates across the world since the s highlights a stronger degree of convergence of those developing economies which had remained relatively open during the period of analysis. These results contrast with the lack of economic convergence of closed economies. Coe, Helpman and Hoffmeister report similar results in 77 developing countries regarding the impact of trade on technological spillovers and growth.
In addition, some authors have emphasized that greater economic integration of developing countries has not only positive effects in terms of economic efficiency, but also in terms of inter-territorial equality. Since most of this skilled but literate labour is increasingly found in the periphery of developing countries, relatively lagging regions in these countries are likely to benefit more from the opening of the economies than core areas, thus reducing regional disparities within developing countries Wood, ; Williamson, ; Duranton, As a result, combining a reform of trade with an improvement of the quality of human resources are increasingly considered as the most adequate policies for economic progress in the developing world.
However, the emergence of subnational institutional actors and, in the case of Brazil, the revival of federalism, mediate the effects of globalization and foreign direct investment. The consequence of these processes is that many regions and localities which had grown accustomed to the relative protection of the state find that economic integration radically changes this situation and brings new development challenges and opportunities.
The relatively free movement of goods and capital in countries which have recently adopted the decision to open their borders generally results in an increase in foreign direct investment FDI. However, and in contrast with previous waves of investment, current FDI is more footloose and less constrained by traditional locational factors.
Infrastructure and human capital improvements allow FDI much greater mobility within developing countries than hitherto. Brazil is no exception. Brazilian federalism has in the past followed political cycles: authoritarian spells favoured a greater centralization of power, whereas decentralization has always been closely associated to devolution of power to the states Souza, The advent of democracy in the late s has thus been accompanied by an increase of the political power of state governors and local mayors.
And since in Brazil the influence of governors and mayors is related to the size of the budget of their respective states and municipalities, the new inflow of FDI has opened up the possibilities to increase local revenues.
Since territorial competition is more concerned with issues of local economic efficiency than with inter-regional equality, the effects of territorial competition may offset any positive effects related to the process of economic integration. As Cheshire and Gordon underline, the impact of territorial competition may be growth enhancing, when these policies lead to an increase in the local and national economic welfare, but it may also be either zero-sum when any increase in local welfare is achieved at the expense of the welfare of other areas or even pure waste when territorial competition simply represents a waste of resources.
In this latter case, the effects of territorial competition in terms of long-term welfare improvement tend to be negligible at the local level and may lead to the unleashing of perverse economic effects elsewhere Figure 1.
The final outcome of these bidding wars is pure waste, since locally any possible increase in welfare is neutralized by the direct and indirect costs of attracting FDI; and globally territorial competition is leading to the closure of other plants -and hence to lower economic activity and greater unemployment- elsewhere in the country.
Economic stabilization in Brazil In the s the Brazilian economy reached a significant impasse. The processes of industralization, which had been actively encouraged by the government since the s, and of import-substitution, in place since the s, and which led to the formation of the largest industrial base in the whole of Latin America, seemed to be exhausted.
Large, mainly obsolete, and very often state controlled industrial complexes and companies were no longer capable of providing the type of dynamism needed in an increasingly globalized world.
Overspending by the government resulted in a large external debt that Brazil could no longer service. In addition, high inflation became the norm during much of the s and early s. This overall situation had a serious impact on the Brazilian economy: growth rates became extremely volatile, alternating short periods of high growth with deep economic downturns.
Social and regional inequality increased Baer, ; Storper, Wage earners were hit by high inflation Blumenschein, , private and public investment fell, and "the apparent tendency toward 'relative' polarization reversal observed in the s came to a halt in the early s" Storper, Successive national governments tried to combat this adverse economic situation with a series of macroeconomic plans.
The main aim of the plans, and of the changes in currencies and wage policies associated to them, was to try to control prices and wages and to stabilize the Brazilian currency. Despite being in most cases able to curb inflation for a short period of time, all these plans failed to deliver a stable economic environment.
The final result of the plans was always similar: return to high government expenditure and high inflation. This economic panorama changed in the mids. With the arrival of Fernando Henrique Cardoso to the Ministry of Finance in , a new macroeconomic plan -the Real Plan- was launched. It included many features from previous plans some kind of wage and price controls, restrictive monetary policies, and the creation of a new currency -the Real- pegged to the US dollar , but it also introduced new measures.
Apart from opening some state monopolies to market competition, from including privatisation packages of state-owned companies, and from greater regional economic integration with Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay in the framework of Mercosur, the Real Plan continued with the opening up of the Brazilian economy started earlier in the decade. Whereas tariff barriers were reduced in certain sectors, other sectors remained highly protected.
The latter was the case of car manufacturing, where external tariffs remained high4. As a result, the Real Plan has in certain sectors -like car manufacturing- promoted a certain return to import-substitution policies. However, and in contrast with previous policies, the import-substitution process has been driven only by foreign investment, rather than by Brazilian capital: foreign car manufacturers -their export capacity limited by the maintenance of high entry barriers- chose to enter the Brazilian market en masse through FDI and the building of new car plants, rather than by imports.
Whereas in the s and s the Brazilian state encouraged technological transfer from multinational companies to infant Brazilian industries, in the s there has been less concern with this issue.
In contrast to previous plans, the results of the Real Plan have been relatively long- lasting. The Brazilian real was for four years a stable currency pegged to the dollar. Despite these economic achievements, the Brazilian crisis of late and early highlighted some of the weaknesses of the system.
High federal and state deficits limited the capacity of the Brazilian government to redress its economy and pay its debts, especially after several state governments declared themselves bankrupt in early The economic recovery of the second half of has brought greater stability back, but some of the problems which led to the crisis remain.
Foreign car manufacturers seem to have suddenly realized that Brazil is a country which offers huge prospects for business, especially in a sector which can be considered mature in developed countries.
Brazil offers a large market of about million inhabitants with a very low level of car ownership in comparison with markets in North America, Europe and Japan Table 1. Differences between the investment announced by foreign car manufacturers and real investment make it difficult to calculate the exact volume of FDI in Brazil in the s. And, as mentioned in the introduction, data provided by the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Tourism puts investment between December and September at levels of Table 1 Car ownership inhabitants per car USA 1.
Almost all the main world car manufacturers have announced the building of new, or the restructuring of existing car plants in Brazil. Fiat, Ford, General Motors, and Volkswagen are increasing their already sizeable presence, whereas Mercedes and Renault plan huge new investments. Chrysler, Iveco, Scania, and Volvo are also targeting Brazil. Rover Ger. Taking into account the volatility of planned investments and the nature of the data, the data on FDI is to be considered as an approximation and is likely to change.
In those years General Motors, Ford, Mercedes Benz, Toyota, Volkswagen, Fiat, and Scania established themselves in the country leading to the formation of the largest car industry agglomeration in Latin America and contributing to the development of a large and skilled workforce and of a dense network of part suppliers for the automobile industry. There is, however, a significant difference in the territorial distribution of car plants between the first wave of the late s and early s and that of the s.
Kia Motors has a similar strategy. A similar strategy, although with a lower level of robotization of the production line, has been followed by Fiat at its Betim Minas Gerais plant. Other, mainly Asian, companies intend to develop investments outside the South, but the future of most announced investments is still uncertain.
Overall the North, North East, and the Centre West regions -with the exception of the state of Bahia, which has recently emerged as a strong player and is likely to attract 8. What are the reasons behind the current decentralization of the Brazilian car industry? The push factors behind the territorial spread of foreign investment in the automobile sector during the s are manifold. First comes the question of labour costs in combination with what Wood considers to be the main force in North-South trade: skills.
According to the Heckscher- 13 Ohlin theory of trade, the increase in trade leads developing countries with a large supply of literate but relatively unskilled labour to specialize in the production of manufactured and relatively undifferentiated goods Wood, The automobile sector falls within this category and lower wages in countries like Brazil -together with the incentives of expanding markets- act as bait for car manufacturers.
Wage differentials within Brazil and the reduction of the educational gap across the country in recent years have led car companies to look for locations with lower labour costs. Car plants in the ABC region were the cradles of Brazil's trade union movement.
Levels of trade union membership are much higher than elsewhere in Brazil and the main local trade unions are well-organized. Local unions also have a reputation of being strike prone, mainly as a consequence of the strikes of the late s and s, which combined traditional workers' demands with protest movements against the military regime in power at the time. Hourly wages, however, were lower than the hourly cost per worker, with huge gaps between those workers being paid by the hour 7.
This reputation is in stark contrast with that of the rest of the country as a less-unionized and almost conflict-free location. As Fiat managers at the Betim plant Minas Gerais boast, not as single hour had been lost to strikes in the last 14 years The Economist, a. The amelioration of road infrastructure in Brazil in the last three decades together with the need of targeting wider markets, both inside and outside the country, as well as technological advances in car manufacturing, give companies greater leeway when choosing the location of their plants.
In this sense, the process of globalization and the increasing internationalization of the Brazilian economy could be succeeding at what traditional regional policies failed: reducing regional inequalities in Brazil, since FDI is increasingly located outside the traditional core.
This trend would come to support Wood's and Williamson's low strike record in recent years, and their active participation in the signing of the car industry agreements of and However, these push factors alone do not suffice to explain the current process of decentralization that the Brazilian car industry is witnessing.
Being the largest single market in South America and having the largest agglomeration of industries and the largest pool of skilled labour still outweigh the push factors in the decisional location of companies.
Proximity to markets and the specific advantages of each location were more important in determining the locational decisions of firms than labour costs, trade union membership and spatial congestion Table 4.
The locational behaviour of car manufacturers in the early s seemed to conform to this pattern. Only the burst into scene of the bidding wars and the 16 tax breaks and incentives associated to them has tilted the balance in favour of alternative locations.
The bidding wars for FDI among Brazilian states have been triggered by the progressive insertion of Brazil in the world economy. The massive influx of FDI and the apparent retreat of the Federal Government from the field of active regional policy have whetted the appetite of different Brazilian states. This process, encouraged at first by the Brazilian government within the framework of the New Automotive Regime, quickly started to show its negative side.
State politicians eager, on the one hand, to present themselves as generators of employment and modernizers, and fearing, on the other, losing out to neighbours, increasingly resorted to incentives, subsidies, and tax breaks as the main means to attract international car companies to their territories. Tax or bidding wars have become the norm in the motor industry.
Motor companies wanting to set up new plants to service a growing Brazilian and South American market have taken advantage of the situation and approach different states simultaneously in order to reach the best possible deal for their interests.
Although negotiations between car companies and the states may adopt different forms, most deals are cut by the same cloth. In compensation for the establishment of a car plant within its territory, the state and the city where the plant is to be built provide a series of incentives which inevitably include the following points: a The donation of the land or, at least, of a large percentage of it.
This usually includes road infrastructure and utilities, but in some cases it goes as far as rail links and the development of port terminals. A brief review of some of these agreements confirms the difference in bargaining power between the motor companies and the Brazilian states. Renault agreed to create 1, direct jobs and to pay These loans, without interest or clause which may take into account the devaluation of the currency, are to be repaid after ten years of the beginning of operations.
Mercedes-Benz was next in line. These included a series of loans for the development of fixed and mobile investment which amounted to a total of almost million reais ca. The conditions of the agreement between General Motors Brazil and the state of Rio Grande do Sul for the establishment of a GM plant near its capital, Porto Alegre, are also extremely beneficial for the company.
The protocol includes lending million reais ca. The repayment of the loan is to start in the year Tax breaks expand for a period of 15 years. In addition, the locality and the state have to provide the necessary infrastructure including all utilities, sanitation, and links to the road system. Water, electricity, natural gas, telecommunications, and sewage disposal are to be subsidised or, as stated in the protocol, "supplied at an internationally competitive cost".
However, the most stunning feature of the agreement is the development of additional infrastructure for the site. It was agreed that the state was to build private port facilities for GM and to dig out an access canal of a minimum depth of twenty feet, as well as to provide for the preparation of the site. Finally, the protocol also includes a series of measures destined to reinforce security at the site and provide public transport to the factory Protocol between General Motors Brazil and the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Ford signed a protocol with the state of Rio Grande do Sul a few months later which in many ways mirrored that of GM.
The protocol includes similar tax breaks to those granted to GM, plus the 13 In addition to a series of minor additional concessions and vague promises, such as to import all its vehicles through the plant at Juiz de Fora, to try to use local suppliers and to favour the development of co-operation with local research and development centres.
Ford will also be provided with a private sea and river port terminal Protocol between Ford and the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Justification and possible consequences of the bidding wars Engaging in the bidding wars is justified by state authorities from various viewpoints.
FDI is perceived as the panacea for the dynamization of local economies and for the generation of employment. The final result would be the creation of new direct and, above all, indirect jobs, which will ultimately lead to the development of the state. The state of Rio Grande do Sul also puts employment at the core of the effort in territorial competition. Rather optimistically, the document goes on to estimate the possible impact on the creation of employment.
That is about indirect jobs per direct job created. Since the opening of the plant in the city of Betim has been thoroughly transformed.
Its population has jumped from 37, inhabitants in to , in the late s. The Fiat plant employs 12, workers and has attracted numerous suppliers, not just to the city of Betim, but also to the industrial belt of Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais. In a document elaborated by the Department of Development and International Affairs of the state of Rio Grande do Sul this reasoning is stated bluntly.
First, and after acknowledging the massive influx of foreign investment that is taking place in the Brazilian automotive sector and which "is profoundly altering the spatial distribution of national development" Government of Rio Grande do Sul, 2 , it is pointed out that "the state of Rio Grande do Sul cannot remain aside from this whole process" 14 The documents underlines that "a car plant, being a labour intensive industry, tends to generate, a very high number of jobs, directly or indirectly in other sectors of the productive chain" FIERGS, 2.
However, as the whole process is taking place in "an atmosphere of unremitting competition among Brazilian states", there is a need to offer the "potential investor powerful incentives, capable not only of exceeding offers from competitors, but also of compensating the structural disadvantage of our location at the Southernmost end of the country15" Government of Rio Grande do Sul, 2.
Hence, from this point of view, it becomes obvious that no Brazilian state can afford to avoid this sort of competition, since this would imply losing out the development battle and almost irretrievably curtailing its development potential. However, there is little evidence that participating in the bidding wars will bring the benefits outlined in the documents drafted by most states involved in the process.
In fact, there are indications in the agreements that contradict the argument of the multiplier effects and spillovers linked to the construction of new car plants.
And ultimately. Of particular interest are the emergence. A feasible CDS experimental program contains the following basic elements: Various questions can be explored in a CDS program: How can individuals introduce novelty into their society?
How can a problem be reformulated by both innovators and assessors? How can a creative artifact become routine over time? What individual. References Clancey.
From these results. Artificial Intelligence 50 2. Review of Rosenfield's The Invention of Memory. In a multi-agent system of this kind. Other experimental settings include homogeneity and heterogeneity in populations of design agents. The experiment should provide evidence for the development of Design Situations from routine to creative and back to routine.
The kinds of results that are expected from these experiments are the group level phenomena related to creativity that are observed by regulating individual and environmental characteristics.
Department of Architectural and Design Science. Kluwer Academic. University of Sydney. From Animals to Animats Artificial life. Cooperation between distributed agents through self-organisation. The Creative Mind. Sage Publications. Creative Design Situations. Graham and Gandhi. Academic Press. Artificial Life: Oxford University Press..
Encyclopedia of Creativity. Concepts and framework. New Jersey. Available at: How Adaptation Builds Complexity. Basic Books. San Diego. Key Centre of Design Computing and Cognition. The Philosophy of Artificial Life. From Animals to Animats. Knowledge-Based Systems. MIT Press.. Modeling creative design through conversation analysis. Hidden Order. New York. Designing emergent behaviors: Recent Advances in Reinforcement Learning. Lawrence Erlbaum. Newbury Park. Design Computing Unit.
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Muller eds. Modelling design exploration as co-evolution. MIT Press. Creating Minds. Theories of Creativity.: Research Proposal submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Decentralized A. S eds. R Creative design situations. M and Ahmad. JS and Sosa. Prentice Hall.
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